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RomainRoth

Romain Roth

Pro Investor 28 copieurs
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Dear Etorians,

2023-09-19

Dear Etorians, New construction is hovering around its historical average. Nevertheless, US Census projections agree that there will be a continued increase in new household formations until at least 2030. As such, if we are clearly not at a low point in the cycle comparable to the 2008-2011 period, nor in a sequence of major imbalance like in neighboring Canada, it is reasonable to believe that the market will remain relatively favorable in the near future. to the offer — that is to say to the manufacturers. Lennar, despite the recent slowdown, will have come through the previous cycle spectacularly well – that of near-zero rates which began in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Its turnover increases tenfold between 2012 and 2022, while its profit per share quintuples. At the same time, the group has significantly reduced its financial leverage. This has not prevented profitability from reaching historic highs in recent years - a sign of a tight market and clearly in favor of supply. Can this last? Investors clearly think not, hence a current valuation around eight or nine times profits, where the average tends to be between twelve and thirteen times profits. It is true that we cannot expect to see Lennar increase its turnover tenfold again over the next decade. One thing is certain in any case: in the United States as in Europe, investors are avoiding the construction sector - see our recent article on the French Samse on this subject. Lennar takes advantage of what he perceives as an attractive valuation to repurchase his shares in significant proportions. We remind you that Berkshire Hathaway has been one of the group's shareholders for several weeks. $LEN

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